Best Hedgies Are Born Offside
Merde I look so young in that. As I am sure you by now know, I am nothing but a worrier, and a bit younger somewhere in another universe far, far away. Anyway, if you listened to my most recent podcast (not that too many do 😂), you’ll have been left short handed this week as I omitted a very important quote. Let me make good on this omission. You see, I have a soulmate in the prolific but often misunderstood Italian football player Pippo Inzaghi, the second highest goal scorer in all European club competitions.
Alex Ferguson claimed “he was born offside” due to his ability to be found precariously close to illegal depth in enemy team territory, right at the edge (of reason). In today’s VAR world I fear his goals might have been chalked off. Infallible analysis might have taken from him his infamy in the hearts of his rivals. The difference between that era and today’s is perhaps reminiscent of that difference between bull and bear markets.
For goals scored in the Champions’ League he stands behind only Ronaldo, Messi, Lewandowski, Raúl and Benzema. LEGEND. In my 2012 letter to those invested in my hedge fund, I quoted him saying “the tension is always the same. I’d hoped to become less agitated with time, but this is also my strength”. I suspect he would have made a fine macro manager.
My partner in crime Mr Sweeny has been continuing his investment education by watching HBO’s Succession. Are hedge funds petty thieves or the guard dogs of Capitalism? I tend to gravitate towards the latter conclusion. Like a character of Ayn Rand I say Never apologise for the wealth created by your intellectual graft, never!
The investment discussion goes back to 1979-82 and 2005 to ask how long will the US Treasury market take to tend towards being bullish? I accept that bond yields will rise over the next 40 years (whippety do!) But I warn that nascent bulls will protect their latent bounty of profit with enormous moats, as anyone familiar with their stockpiles would prophesize.
So investors seeking to capture profit from a bear market in treasuries better beware. Adopt paradoxical investment techniques and capture the upside. I explain in this week’s show. And somewhere in the mix we discuss African jeep safari research trips and the prejudice of the present.